{"id":473,"date":"2018-11-28T11:16:19","date_gmt":"2018-11-28T10:16:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spotdata.pl\/blog\/?p=473"},"modified":"2018-12-17T16:28:19","modified_gmt":"2018-12-17T15:28:19","slug":"nie-ma-nadwyzki-w-budzecie-jest-deficyt-choc-niski","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spotdata.pl\/blog\/2018\/11\/28\/nie-ma-nadwyzki-w-budzecie-jest-deficyt-choc-niski\/","title":{"rendered":"Nie ma nadwy\u017cki w bud\u017cecie, jest deficyt &#8211; cho\u0107 niski"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wsz\u0119dzie mo\u017cna przeczyta\u0107, \u017ce bud\u017cet pa\u0144stwa ma nadwy\u017ck\u0119. Rzeczywi\u015bcie tak jest, gdy we\u017amie si\u0119 pod uwag\u0119 pierwsze dziesi\u0119\u0107 miesi\u0119cy 2018 r. Ale ze wzgl\u0119du na r\u00f3\u017cne przesuni\u0119cia dochod\u00f3w lub wydatk\u00f3w na prze\u0142omie roku, patrzenie na rok kalendarzowy dawno straci\u0142o sens.\u00a0<strong>Najlepsza miara pokazuj\u0105ca kondycj\u0119 bud\u017cetu to 12 miesi\u0119czna krocz\u0105ca suma sald. Wedle tej miary mamy wci\u0105\u017c deficyt.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">W okresie stycze\u0144-pa\u017adziernik bud\u017cet pa\u0144stwa mia\u0142 nadwy\u017ck\u0119 w wysoko\u015bci 6,5 mld z\u0142. Ale patrz\u0105c na\u00a0<strong>krocz\u0105ce 12 miesi\u0119cy, czyli tym razem na okres listopad 2017-pa\u017adziernik 2018 widzimy deficyt w wysoko\u015bci 21,5 mld z\u0142. \u017beby jeszcze uczyni\u0107 ten obraz bardziej wyra\u017anym, odnie\u015bmy te dane do PKB. W tym samym okresie deficyt wyni\u00f3s\u0142 1,1 proc. PKB<\/strong>, czyli by\u0142 na poziomie, na kt\u00f3rym utrzymuje si\u0119 mniej wi\u0119cej od roku. Innymi s\u0142owy, nihil novi w bud\u017cecie. Przy obecnej koniunkturze mo\u017cna oczekiwa\u0107, \u017ce taki deficyt utrzyma si\u0119 jeszcze przez d\u0142u\u017cszy czas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Jak oceni\u0107 ten wynik? Dobrze. Deficyt jest blisko rekordowo niskich poziom\u00f3w<\/strong>\u00a0(czyli saldo jest bliskie rekordowo wysokich poziom\u00f3w). Jako kraj notuj\u0105cy ponadprzeci\u0119tn\u0105 stop\u0119 inwestycji publicznych i wysok\u0105 dynamik\u0119 nominaln\u0105 PKB w d\u0142ugim okresie, mo\u017cemy pozwoli\u0107 sobie na utrzymanie niewielkiego deficytu i zachowanie r\u00f3wnowagi makroekonomicznej. W takich warunkach d\u0142ug publiczny znajduje si\u0119 na spadkowej \u015bcie\u017cce.<strong>\u00a0Mogliby\u015bmy oczywi\u015bcie prowadzi\u0107 polityk\u0119 nadwy\u017cek bud\u017cetowych. Wtedy prawdopodobnie obserwowaliby\u015bmy par\u0119 z nast\u0119puj\u0105cych zjawisk: wy\u017cszy rating, ni\u017csze stopy procentowe, mocniejsz\u0105 walut\u0119<\/strong>, a hipotetycznie te\u017c wy\u017cszy udzia\u0142 inwestycji prywatnych w PKB i mniejszy udzia\u0142 konsumpcji. Pytanie tylko, czy taka konfiguracja by\u0142aby stabilna politycznie. Mo\u017ce lepsze jest wrogiem dobrego.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-474\" src=\"http:\/\/spotdata.pl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/ksf2bmv3hxl2dev2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"583\" srcset=\"https:\/\/spotdata.pl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/ksf2bmv3hxl2dev2.png 600w, https:\/\/spotdata.pl\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/ksf2bmv3hxl2dev2-300x292.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Autor: Ignacy Morawski, Dyrektor SpotData<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wsz\u0119dzie mo\u017cna przeczyta\u0107, \u017ce bud\u017cet pa\u0144stwa ma nadwy\u017ck\u0119. Rzeczywi\u015bcie tak jest, gdy we\u017amie si\u0119 pod uwag\u0119 pierwsze dziesi\u0119\u0107 miesi\u0119cy 2018 r. Ale ze wzgl\u0119du na r\u00f3\u017cne przesuni\u0119cia dochod\u00f3w lub wydatk\u00f3w na prze\u0142omie roku, patrzenie na rok kalendarzowy dawno straci\u0142o sens.\u00a0Najlepsza miara pokazuj\u0105ca kondycj\u0119 bud\u017cetu to 12 miesi\u0119czna krocz\u0105ca suma sald. Wedle tej miary mamy wci\u0105\u017c &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/spotdata.pl\/blog\/2018\/11\/28\/nie-ma-nadwyzki-w-budzecie-jest-deficyt-choc-niski\/\" class=\"more-link\">Czytaj dalej<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> Nie ma nadwy\u017cki w bud\u017cecie, jest deficyt &#8211; cho\u0107 niski<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":474,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[240,38],"tags":[113,68,84,69,123,151,107,122,112,116,126,124,158,154,76,114,160,87,137,70,162,152,153,159,155,161,36,156,100,67,65,140,66,163,157],"class_list":["post-473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finanse-publiczne","category-makroekonomia","tag-analizy","tag-analizy-ekonomiczne","tag-analizy-gospodarcze","tag-analizy-i-raporty","tag-big-data","tag-budzet","tag-dane","tag-dane-dla-biznesu","tag-dane-dla-firm","tag-dane-makroekonomiczne","tag-dane-statystyczne","tag-data-news","tag-deficyt","tag-deficyt-budzetowy","tag-ekonomia","tag-ekonomisci","tag-finanse-publiczne","tag-gospodarka","tag-gus","tag-ignacy-morawski","tag-mateusz-morawiecki","tag-mf","tag-ministerstwo-finansow","tag-nadwyzka","tag-nadwyzka-budzetowa","tag-polityka-oszczenosciowa","tag-polska","tag-rzad-pis","tag-sektor-publiczny","tag-spot-data","tag-spotdata","tag-spotdata-research","tag-spotdata-pl","tag-statystyka","tag-teresa-czerwinska","layout-default"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nie ma nadwy\u017cki w bud\u017cecie, jest deficyt - cho\u0107 niski - SpotData - Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/spotdata.pl\/blog\/2018\/11\/28\/nie-ma-nadwyzki-w-budzecie-jest-deficyt-choc-niski\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pl_PL\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nie ma nadwy\u017cki w bud\u017cecie, jest deficyt - cho\u0107 niski - SpotData - Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Wsz\u0119dzie mo\u017cna przeczyta\u0107, \u017ce bud\u017cet pa\u0144stwa ma nadwy\u017ck\u0119. Rzeczywi\u015bcie tak jest, gdy we\u017amie si\u0119 pod uwag\u0119 pierwsze dziesi\u0119\u0107 miesi\u0119cy 2018 r. Ale ze wzgl\u0119du na r\u00f3\u017cne przesuni\u0119cia dochod\u00f3w lub wydatk\u00f3w na prze\u0142omie roku, patrzenie na rok kalendarzowy dawno straci\u0142o sens.\u00a0Najlepsza miara pokazuj\u0105ca kondycj\u0119 bud\u017cetu to 12 miesi\u0119czna krocz\u0105ca suma sald. 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